Model Performance
Based on 841 stock picks from January 2025 through November 2025
At ExpectFi, we use two AI-powered models to identify stock opportunities: the Mega Dip Model and the Trend Explosion Model. Each model takes a different approach, and understanding their historical performance characteristics may help you evaluate which picks align with your investment strategy.
Both models generate new picks daily when market conditions meet their criteria—some days may have no picks if conditions aren't favorable.
Win Rate: Historical Success Rate
Win rate measures the percentage of stock picks that showed a positive return over a given period from the time of recommendation.
Historically, the Mega Dip Model has achieved higher win rates across all measured time periods. The Trend Explosion Model also demonstrated strong results.
Average Return: Historical Performance
We also measured the average return of picks over various periods from the time of recommendation.
The Mega Dip Model showed higher average returns across all time periods measured. However, averages only tell part of the story.
Different Models for Different Purposes
Different Stock Universes. The Mega Dip Model focuses on large-cap stocks—established companies with substantial market capitalizations. The Trend Explosion Model identifies newly trending stocks across different market segments, including companies the Mega Dip Model doesn't consider.
Return Distribution. While the Mega Dip Model showed higher average returns, the Trend Explosion Model exhibited a wider distribution of short-term outcomes. The chart below shows the 1-week return distribution for both models:
The Trend Explosion Model's wider spread indicates greater variability - it has more chance to select large return stocks in short term. This pattern reflects the model's focus on momentum-driven opportunities.
A Note on Holding Periods
While we present data across holding periods up to six months, both models are designed with shorter-term strategies in mind—typically days to weeks. Shorter holding periods allow for capital redeployment and may help manage exposure to market risk. The longer-period data is provided for informational purposes, but it does not reflect our recommended usage of these models.
Comparing the Models
| Mega Dip Model | Trend Explosion Model | |
|---|---|---|
| Stock universe | Large-cap stocks | Broader market, trending stocks |
| Historical win rate | Higher consistency | Moderate consistency |
| Return distribution | Narrower, steadier | Wider, more variable |
| Potential upside | Steady gains | Occasional larger short-term moves |
Important Disclaimers
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The historical performance data presented on this page is based on tracked results from January 2025 through November 2025. Actual results may vary, and there is no guarantee that future picks will achieve similar outcomes.
This is not investment advice. ExpectFi provides information and data tools for educational and informational purposes only. We are not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner. The content on this website should not be construed as personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Do your own research. Any investment decisions you make are solely your responsibility. You should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Investing in stocks involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
No guarantee of accuracy. While we strive to provide accurate data, we do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of any information on this site. Market data and model outputs may contain errors or delays.